摘 要
摘 要
随着电力推进方式的出现，船舶电力系统容量以几何曲线上升，网络拓扑结构越来越复杂，规模也越来越大。由于船舶电力系统海上运行所处的恶劣环境影响，系统难免要受到来自系统外部和内部的干扰，这些干扰往往是不确定、难以预测的。同时，复杂的船舶电力系统自身也存在固有的缺陷，这些干扰很可能会使系统中某一子系统突然崩溃，在由大量的不同层次的子系统组成的电力系统内，一个子系统崩溃可能会引起连锁的崩溃效应，最终可能使全船电力系统坍塌。因此需要有新的特性指标来描述复杂船舶电力系统的性能，即脆性。
作为一种新的复杂系统分析方法，目前对复杂系统脆性理论及其在船舶电力系统上应用的研究尚属起步阶段。本文主要任务是建立船舶电力系统脆性模型，分析船舶电力系统脆性本质。
首先，本文论证了船舶电力系统脆性的客观存在，定义了船舶电力系统脆性含义，提出船舶电力系统脆性特点，指出船舶电力系统脆性激发的条件。在此基础上介绍了船舶电力系统脆性的基本理论，这些为船舶电力系统的脆性研究提供理论基础。
其次，在船舶电力系统脆性理论的基础上，建立了船舶电力系统的脆性结构模型。应用层次分析法，建立判断矩阵，定量计算出船舶电力系统脆性结构模型各层相对于脆性风险层即总目标层的重要度。通过对各层重要度排序进行分析为船舶电力系统脆性建模和分析提供理论参考。
然后，本文围绕适应性Agent图的相关内容，建立了基于适应性Agent图的船舶电力系统脆性模型，给出了船舶电力系统脆性模型算法。并且应用该脆性模型及其算法，对混合馈线式船舶电力系统的脆性行为进行模拟仿真，分析船舶电力系统脆性发生过程。
为了更全面地深入了解和分析船舶电力系统脆性，引入自组织临界理论，在船舶电力系统脆性Agent图模型的基础上，建立了船舶电力系统脆性的自组织临界性模型，采用船舶电力系统脆性自组织临界性模型算法，以混合馈线式船舶电力系统为例，进行了模拟仿真，并在长尾分布，幂律分布以及米堆模型的基础上，分析了船舶电力系统脆性发生本质。
脆性是从一个全新的角度来认识和研究系统可靠性、安全性的理论。船舶电力系统的脆性研究为船舶电力系统设计之初提供理论参考，预防和控制船舶电力系统的脆性发生，增强船舶电力系统稳定运行的能力，提高船舶电力系统的可靠性、安全性。
关键词：船舶电力系统；复杂系统脆性结构模型；适应性Agent图；自组织临界性
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Abstract
Abstract
With the emergence of marine electric propulsion, capacity of ship electrical power system rises with geometrical curves, network topologic structure is more and more complex, and the scale is more and more big. As a result of maritime operation severe environmental of ship electrical power system, system is subjected to exterior interferences and inner interferences inevitably, and these interferences are usually uncertain and hard to estimate. At the same time, as a result of intrinsic defects of the system, these interferences are likely to make a subsystem collapse suddenly, and by a large number of subsystems of different levels of power system, collapse of a subsystem may cause chain effects collapse, ultimately the whole of ship electrical power system will collapse possibly. So we need new performance to describe the function of complex power electric system, namely, brittleness.
As a new analysis method of complex system, the research on brittleness theory of complex system and its application in the ship electrical power system is in the start stage currently. This main task of this paper is to establish brittleness model of ship electrical power system, and analyze brittleness nature of the ship electrical power system.
Firstly, this paper demonstrates objective existence of the brittleness of the ship electrical power system, defines the brittleness of ship electrical power system, points out stimulation conditions of brittleness of ship electrical power system, propose characteristics of brittleness of ship electrical power system. And then the theories of brittleness of ship electrical power system is introduced, these provide theoretical foundation for researching on brittleness of ship electrical power system.
Secondly, brittleness structure model of ship electrical power system is established based on brittleness theories of ship electrical power system. The importance coefficient of every level’s factors is calculated quantitatively by AHP. By analyzing importance sequence of each layer, it provides theoretical reference for establishing model and analysis of ship electrical power system.
Thirdly, according to relative content of adaptive agent graph, brittleness model of ship electrical power system is established based on agent digraph, and the algorithm of brittleness model is provided. With the application of the model and algorithm of brittleness, brittleness behavior of ship electrical power system of mixed feeder type is simulated and brittleness occurrence process of ship electrical power system is analyzed.
For understanding and analyzing brittleness of ship electrical power system
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Abstract
comprehensively and deeply, the self-organized criticality model of brittleness of ship electrical power system is established based on brittleness model of ship electrical power system by introducing self-organized critical theory, and according to the algorithm of self-organized criticality model of brittleness, the algorithm is simulated for ship electrical power system of mixed feeder type and brittleness essence of ship electrical power system is analyzed by Long-tailed distribution, Power-law distribution and rice pile model.
Brittleness is to recognize and research security and reliability of system from a new point of view. Brittleness research of ship power system is to provide the theoretical reference at the beginning of design, prevent and control brittleness appearance of ship power system, improve security and reliability of ship power system.
Keywords: ship electrical power system; brittleness structure model; adaptive agent digraph; self-organized criticality
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