文献出处：Geltner D. The study on the relationship between the monetary policy and real estate prices [J]. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 2015, 5(3): 522-532. 原文
The study on the relationship between the monetary policy and real estate prices
Geltner D
Abstract
Monetary policy has an important influence on the real economy, monetary policy from the set to play a role affect real economy exists a conduction process, and the effect of monetary policy is good or not directly depends on whether the conduction process smoothly. As assets related trade, with pure inflation index to measure the rationality of the monetary policy effect was questioned, the control effect is more and more attention to asset price reasonable or not. Especially in recent years the real estate industry has developed rapidly in our country, the real estate investment in fixed assets investment in the country to the rapid growth of the share of the real estate industry plays a decisive role to the development of the economy. Keywords: real estate prices; monetary policy 1 Introduction
The transmission mechanism of monetary policy as the most important part of monetary policy research field, research is how monetary policy effects on the real economy, to achieve the ultimate goal of policy, exert its function of macroeconomic adjustment. This transmission mechanism will with the passage of time and the development of the economy changing, in different countries and regions have different transmission path, therefore, according to different economy we must want to undertake an independent monetary policy transmission mechanism research. Since Keynes established macroeconomic analysis framework, different economic schools according to the different economic conditions put forward their own theory of monetary policy transmission. In general, monetary policy transmission way interest rates, exchange rates, credit and asset price way, etc. With the development of the economy, despite of the related assets other than monetary assets and wealth can also
be to give the effect of monetary policy to the real economy. This article selects the important in modern life of an asset prices, real estate prices as the research object, the real estate as a special asset in today's society, with dual attributes, it is not only consumer goods, and investment. At the same time, in the modern real estate development model, the real estate industry and the social investment, consumer spending and bank credit is closely related to many aspects, can become the important carrier of the monetary policy transmission. The transmission mechanism of monetary policy and its impact on the macro economy is the core content of theory of monetary policy. The development of the real estate market and deepen bring brand-new conduction path for the monetary policy transmission at the same time, also make the implementation of the policy face greater risks, increasing the difficulty of policy making. To investigate whether monetary policy through regulating the real estate price to control the real economy, the purpose of testing the transmission path of existence and effectiveness, can not only improve the monetary policy transmission theories, but also for the steady growth of the real economy and the healthy development of the real estate market has important theoretical and practical significance. 2 Research review
As a kind of asset prices, real estate prices in the first place and didn't get everybody's attention. After the economic crisis in the 1930 s and 80 s respectively in the theory of asset prices and monetary policy this problem of two orgasms, during this period, scholars from different perspectives on this issue a lot of theoretical and empirical studies, a series of related conclusions, system analyzes the asset prices and monetary policy and the relationship between the real economy in all aspects.
Franco Modigliani’s theory of life cycle theory and Tobin’s Q is the asset price transmission channels of monetary policy can play a role of theoretical basis. But the original study of asset prices more focused on the discussion of the price of the stock, and ignored the role of the real estate price changes. However, with the continuous development of the real estate market, asset price theory is more and more focus on real estate prices. Many scholars have studied the real estate prices in the monetary
policy transmission plays an important role. Meltzer, for example, (1995), as a representative of monetarism, he thought that monetary policy can effectively regulate the real estate price, and the changes in asset prices can have an important impact on output and employment, asset prices play an important role in the transmission mechanism. Mishkin (2001) studies have shown that real estate prices can affect the conduction effect of aggregate demand, but the excessive attention to real estate prices can also affect the effectiveness of monetary policy. American economist Good hart (2000) based on the idea of asset prices would act as a monetary policy, research and analyze data on the United States, to verify whether asset price changes on inflation have expected effect, explore the monetary policy on asset prices can better achieve the ultimate goal of the central bank. The conclusion is: asset prices (including the real estate price) of the change of related reaction increases the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission. Ireland (2005) study shows that monetary policy can affect real economy through real estate price conduction of some real variables, such as output and employment. Calza, Monacelli (2007). Research results indicate that the mortgage market and the more developed countries, the relationship of real estate prices and consumption more obvious, so the real estate price conduction effect is stronger.
Many scholars study the effect of monetary policy on the real estate market alone, the portfolio from interest rate, money supply, three ways to analyze monetary policy on real estate price regulation ability. In interest rates way of analysis, Andrew (2008) study shows that interest rate changes are the main cause of the real estate price changes. Abraham (2006) by using the model of a considering lag period of house price changes, the conclusion is: the increase in price and interest rate changes are negative correlation. Aoki (2009) study of Britain's monetary policy impact on real estate market, through the establishment of the VAR model to empirical conclusion: interest rate changes and the relationship between real estate and consumer durables, when interest rates rise, real estate prices will be reduced. Ho Wong (2010) based on the research of the long-term data, draw the conclusion: real estate prices will affect interest rates, but the interest rate adjustment can't change the real estate prices, is a
one-way transmission relationship between interest rate and real estate prices.
In the analysis of the credit way Margraves (2013) study, points out that as the easing of economic liberalization and market regulation, more and more credit resources flow to the high yield of the real estate market, make real estate investment overheating, led to the real estate prices. Collins (2010) on the data of some Asian countries in recent years the study found that real estate in the current price is affected by the credit growth significantly. Davis (2010) study conclusion shows that the credit expansion is the root cause of commercial real estate prices, the opposite is not established.
In portfolio analysis of the effect way, Sheridan (2009) to major cities in Europe and the United States 17 countries annual data for the cross section data regression analysis, the empirical results show that in the long run, stock returns, rent, and significantly positive correlation between real estate prices, and real estate prices and stock price synchronicity with GDP growth significantly. Wilson (2007) argue that the real estate market and stock market in the United States nonlinear relationship exists between the weak and they with Zurbrueg (2010) confirmed that Australia's real estate prices and stock prices there is a two-way linear Granger causality between. In the study of how monetary policy affects real estate prices at the same time, to study how the change of the real estate prices affect consumption and investment in the real economy.
(1) The consumption effect
Consumption effect mainly through the implementation of the wealth effect and family balance sheet effect two ways. The analysis of the wealth effect is based on the life-cycle theory and permanent income theory. Skinner (2008), the study found that the real estate wealth effect is significant effect on consumption. Shiller: an empirical study of (2010) and others found that real estate wealth effect was stronger than the stock, and the level of consumption changes by real estate wealth increase significantly, the influence of the real estate wealth reduce almost no reaction. At the same time, there are some contrary to the above conclusion of the study. Such as Elliott (2009) studied the relationship between consumer spending and wealth, the
